Mathematics
Co-Authors: Katie Ericson, Julia Goyco, Renae Rhode, Lauren Smith
Advisor: Dr. Emek Kose, Mathematical Modeling
The devastation of the Black Plague in 14th century Europe is well-known. We know how many people died and how long the plague lasted. However, what if humans never learned how to save themselves? What if humans never figured out how to stop the plague from spreading? How long would it have taken for the Black Plague to completely destroy Europe? This paper answers these questions by utilizing general SIR models to successfully describe the Black Plague’s effect on all of Europe, if people had never learned the basic principle of cleanliness. After establishing the assumptions, like birth rate being the same as natural death rate and using only human to human interactions, the equations were run through a differential equation solving program to map the spread of the disease to all people in Europe. The results of this modelling showed a dramatic change in length and severity from the historical plague to our modelled plague.
An expansion of the SIR Model
Co-Authors: Katie Ericson, Renae Rhode, Lauren Smith
Advisor: Dr. Emek Kose, Mathematical Modeling
The Black Death was one of the most devastating diseases to spread through Europe and Asia. In current times, it is treatable; however, in the 1300’s, it was a death sentence. Today, it is known that better hygienic practices could have prevented the plague from being as horrible as it was. In this paper, we examine the effect of hygiene on the plague through agent-based modeling simulations, using historical data to produce as accurate results as possible. We also examine the possibility of the plague being completely eradicated, constantly present, and completely wiping out the population.